Will we see a Nintendo Wii 1.5 before Nintendo's new 'surprise' console arrives

Nintendo's Satoru has said the company's Wii replacement will be a surprise, despite rumors that a new Wii with built in hard disk to save download games will be in stores by Christmas. Will falling game sales and new motion controllers from Sony and Microsoft eating into their advantage, how long can Nintendo wait?
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So will it happen? Built in motion plus a hard drive all before Christmas - only time will tell.